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Russia’s War Strategy Updates Ahead of Geneva Talks

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Russian delegation for Geneva talks remains unchanged – Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Vladimir Medinsky will lead the Russian team, joined by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, GRU First Deputy Lt. Gen. Vladimir Kostyukov, and RDIF chief Kirill Dmitriev attending a separate economic working group, signalling no shift from Russia’s original war demands[1][2][3][4][5][6][7].

Russia may use energy‑strike moratorium as propaganda – Ukrainian Defense Council secretary Rustem Umerov will raise a new temporary cease‑fire on energy strikes at Geneva; past moratoriums in 2025‑26 were used to stockpile drones and missiles while the grid remained heavily damaged, and President Volodymyr Zelensky warned all Ukrainian power plants have been hit[8][9][10][11].

BARS‑Sarmat Center expands roles to accelerate drone capabilities – Former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin announced the Unmanned Systems Special Purpose Center is adding “Dnepr”, “Stalingrad” and “Bagration” detachments, a new “soldier technologist” specialty, and a Ustinov Scientific Detachment to integrate reconnaissance, strike, EW, production and training, a move ISW says will speed R‑U drone tech diffusion across six new USF brigades[12][13][14][15].

Kremlin taps former Wagner recruiters for sabotage in Europe – Western intelligence told the Financial Times that GRU is using ex‑Wagner recruiters to enlist economically vulnerable Europeans for arson and fake‑Nazi propaganda attacks, reviving a sabotage campaign that waned in 2025 after arrests and a shift of GRU resources back to Ukraine[16][17][18][19].

Ukrainian FP‑5 Flamingo missile failed to damage Kapustin Yar – Satellite imagery released by a Ukrainian OSINT outlet shows a six‑metre crater near a preparation‑area fence, contradicting Ukrainian General Staff claims that the January 2025 strike damaged a missile‑service facility; a Russian milblogger reported four Flamingos were launched, suggesting a miss or interception[20][21][22].

Ukrainian strikes hit Russian energy sites; front‑line fighting sees limited advances – Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko posted fire images at Belgorod CHP, confirmed by Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov; similar footage showed a burning substation in Bryansk, acknowledged by Governor Alexander Bogomaz. ISW notes Russian offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Pokrovsk and other axes continued on Feb 15‑16 but produced no confirmed territorial gains[23][24][25][26][27][31][35][44][45].

  • Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, outlined the composition of Russia’s Geneva delegation and reiterated unchanged war aims.
  • Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister, said the delegation will act within the framework set at the August 2025 Alaska Summit.
  • Rustem Umerov, Ukrainian Defense Council secretary, announced Ukraine will push for another temporary energy‑strike cease‑fire at the talks.
  • Dmitry Rogozin, former Roscosmos head and senator, described the expansion and new specialties of the BARS‑Sarmat drone center.
  • Western intelligence sources quoted by the Financial Times reported the GRU’s use of former Wagner recruiters for sabotage in Europe.
  • Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, posted evidence of strikes on Belgorod and Bryansk energy facilities.

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