425 drones and missiles hit Ukraine overnight, targeting energy sites. The Ukrainian Air Force recorded 425 drones and missiles launched from multiple directions, including 396 strike drones—about 250 Shaheds—and 29 missiles such as four Iskander‑M ballistic missiles, 20 Kh‑101 cruise missiles, and others; Ukrainian defenses downed 367 drones and 25 missiles, but debris fell on eight locations, cutting power for at least 28,000 customers in Kharkiv and tens of thousands in Odesa [1][2][3].
Russia’s strike tempo spikes before talks, yet stays below its peak capacity. Large strike packages of 400‑700 weapons have repeatedly preceded bilateral and trilateral negotiations since August 2025; the war’s biggest package of 823 weapons occurred in September 2025, far above the current 425‑weapon sortie, suggesting Moscow may be tempering attacks to avoid provoking U.S. President Donald Trump [4][5][6].
Geneva trilateral talks begin as both sides weigh a new energy‑strike moratorium. Delegations from the United States, Ukraine and Russia convened on 17 Feb 2026, with discussions slated to include a short‑term halt to energy strikes—a tactic Russia used in early 2025 and again in Jan‑Feb 2026 to claim goodwill while stockpiling weapons; President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that intelligence indicated another large strike was imminent [7][8][9][10].
Even reduced packages inflict severe damage and strain Ukraine’s air defence. In January 2026 Russia fired a record 96 ballistic missiles; Ukrainian forces shot down all cruise missiles on 16‑17 Feb 2026, largely with F‑16 and Mirage jets, but failed to intercept any ballistic missiles, underscoring Ukraine’s reliance on scarce Western air‑defence systems [11][12][13][14][15].
Kremlin‑aligned officials reiterate Russia’s non‑compromise stance. Duma Defense Committee Chair Andrei Kartapolov declared Ukraine could “win” only by joining the Russian Federation, while Deputy Chair Yuri Shvytkin praised Russia’s “favorable backdrop” for future settlements; both echoed a broader narrative that negotiations should involve only the United States, invoking the alleged “spirit of Anchorage” from the 2025 Alaska summit [18][19][20].
Presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev threatens the West over shadow‑fleet seizures and Finland. In an interview with Argumenty i Fakty, Patrushev demanded a “firm rebuff” to European actions against Russian shadow‑fleet tankers, warned the navy would break any blockade, and accused Finland of preparing offensive corvettes—part of a pattern of escalatory rhetoric aimed at pressuring the United States and its allies [24][25][26][27].