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Kremlin Narrative, Domestic Crackdown, and Front‑line Shifts – Feb 20 2026 Update

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Kremlin pushes false narrative of sweeping Russian gains. Colonel‑General Sergei Rudskoy claimed Russian forces seized about 900 km² and 42 settlements in 2026 and 6,700 km² and 300 settlements in 2025, while ISW’s open‑source analysis finds only 19 settlements and 572 km² taken in 2026 and 252 settlements in 2025, a gap of 23 settlements and 328 km² [1].

Former separatist leader Pavel Gubarev faces a criminal case. TASS reported Russian authorities opened an administrative case for “discrediting the Russian Armed Forces,” seeking a fine of 30,000‑50,000 rubles; Gubarev said the case was filed by MoD Deputy Head Apti Alaudinov after Gubarev criticized him as a “TikTok general” on his Telegram channel [8][9][10].

United Russia ramps up propaganda ahead of the 2026 Duma vote. Meduza cited sources that the Presidential Administration ordered media to publish more United Russia stories on social benefits and war‑equipment deliveries; polling fell 10‑15 percent in regions such as St. Petersburg amid rising food and utility prices [16][17][18].

Ukrainian and Moldovan services foiled a Russian assassination plot. Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko said ten suspects were detained; Russian intelligence had offered up to $100,000 per target to kill journalists, officials and foreign‑legion personnel, intending to spark public outrage and destabilise Ukraine [20][21][22].

Leaked messages confirm Russian command condones POW torture. Radio Svoboda’s Skhemy project released Telegram chats from Major General Roman Demurchiev discussing routine torture and killing of Ukrainian POWs with senior generals, corroborating ISW’s long‑standing assessment that the Russian military hierarchy sanctions such crimes [24][25].

Ukraine struck deep Russian targets while Russia launched a massive drone barrage. Ukrainian forces hit an ammunition depot in Maksimovka (Belgorod) and burned a warehouse at the Tamanneftegaz refinery (Krasnodar); Russia responded on Feb 19‑20 with one Iskander‑M missile and 128 drones, of which ≈80 were Shahed‑type, hitting civilian infrastructure across five oblasts [27][28][82][83].

  • Sergei Rudskoy (Chief of the General Staff’s Main Operations Directorate) – asserted large territorial captures in 2025‑2026, framing them as evidence of inevitable Russian victory.
  • Pavel Gubarev (self‑styled “People’s Governor of Donetsk”) – told RBK that “someone may have not liked [his] writing” after his critical posts; on Telegram he blamed MoD Deputy Head Apti Alaudinov for filing the case.
  • Ruslan Kravchenko (Ukrainian Prosecutor General) – reported the detention of ten suspects and described the plot’s $100k bounty per target, saying the goal was to provoke outrage.
  • Roman Demurchiev (Deputy Commander, 20th Combined Arms Army) – in leaked Telegram chats, discussed the torture and execution of Ukrainian POWs as routine, addressing fellow generals.

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