Ukrainian forces achieve biggest territorial gains since 2024 Ukrainian forces have reclaimed at least 183 sq km around Kupyansk between Dec 11‑25 2025 and liberated roughly 200 sq km in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia in Feb 2026, marking the most significant advances since the August 2024 Kursk incursion and the 2023 counter‑offensive [1].
Localized counterattacks disrupt Russia’s spring‑summer offensive plans While the attacks are not yet a full‑scale counter‑offensive, they have forced Russian units to pause to secure defensive positions, delaying the planned large‑scale push for spring‑summer 2026 and likely attriting Russian troops before any major advance [2].
Russian C2 hampered by Starlink shutdown and Telegram throttling Efforts by Elon Musk and Ukraine’s MoD to block illegal Russian use of Starlink, combined with Kremlin‑ordered limits on Telegram—still vital for frontline communications—have degraded Russian command, control and communications, according to ISW [5][6][7].
Kupyansk gains made before Russian communication failures Ukraine’s mid‑December 2025 counter‑offensive seized fragile Russian supply lines around Kupyansk, allowing a stable hold on the town despite later Russian C2 issues, showing Ukraine can achieve gains even without external disruptions [2].
Russia has failed to meet original war objectives after five years Putin’s 2022 goals of “de‑nazifying,” “demilitarizing,” and forcing Ukrainian neutrality have not been achieved; Kyiv remains independent, NATO expansion proceeded, and Russia still lacks control of the four annexed oblasts, while Ukraine’s armed forces are now Europe’s second‑largest [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15].
Manpower shortages and economic strain push Kremlin toward forced mobilization Russia’s casualty rate exceeded recruitment in Jan 2026, cash incentives are dwindling, sanctions have cut oil‑gas revenue, and the Kremlin is preparing limited rolling reserve call‑ups and tighter internet censorship to sustain the war effort [16][17][18][19][20][21][22].