Two intense clashes in six months heighten tensions – Pakistan launched air and missile strikes deep inside Afghanistan, hitting Kabul and Kandahar, while the Taliban hit multiple Pakistani posts along the Durand Line; the first clash occurred in October 2025 and the latest began last week, with high military and civilian casualties despite a Turkey‑Qatar‑mediated ceasefire after the October attacks[1].
Pakistani Defence Minister announces an “open war” – Following the recent strikes, the defence minister declared that Pakistan would wage an “open war” against Afghanistan, signalling a stark political break and authorising further military action[1].
Rupture spans political, establishment and societal levels – The author identifies three layers of breakdown: diplomatic ties between Islamabad and Kabul, the historic Pakistan‑Establishment support for the Taliban now severed, and growing hostility between Afghan and Pakistani peoples over Afghan refugee deportations[1].
Long‑standing patronage erodes as Taliban fails to curb TTP – Pakistan helped create the Taliban in the 1990s and supported it through the U.S. war; after the U.S. exit in 2021, expectations that Kabul would restrain the Tehrik‑e‑Taliban‑Pakistan (TTP) proved false, with militant activity rising in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from 2022‑25 and a shift from Imran Khan’s mixed approach to a hard‑line military stance under the current army chief[1].
Military and economic asymmetries tilt advantage to Pakistan – Pakistan’s air force and missile capabilities allow deep strikes into Afghanistan, whereas the Taliban lacks comparable firepower; Afghanistan’s economy is weaker and heavily reliant on the Karachi port, giving Pakistan leverage to restrict trade and pressure Kabul[1].