August 2025 – The Trump administration issues a directive ordering the U.S. military to target drug cartels and groups that the State Department has designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, laying groundwork for possible land‑based operations against Mexican criminal networks[3].

November 2025 – Trump publicly pledges that the United States will soon begin stopping suspected drug traffickers by land, following earlier maritime interdictions, signaling a shift toward cross‑border action[3].

April 2025 – CDC data show U.S. overdose deaths total about 76,516 in the 12‑month period ending April 2025, a figure far lower than Trump later claims of 250‑300 k deaths per year[3].

Jan 5‑6 2026 – The United States conducts a military operation in Venezuela; Mexican officials and security analysts say the episode makes a unilateral U.S. invasion of Mexico unlikely, though Trump continues to float forceful options[9].

Jan 9 2026 – In a televised interview, Trump declares that the United States will soon launch land‑based strikes against Mexican cartels, saying the cartels “run Mexico” and citing a U.S. death toll of 250,000‑300,000 per year[3].

Jan 9 2026 – On Fox News, Trump repeats the land‑strike threat, offers no timing or locations, and points to a Newsweek map that highlights Sinaloa’s dominance and notes that six Mexican cartels are designated as foreign terrorist organizations[2].

Jan 9 2026 – Experts warn that land attacks could be perceived as aggression, note that removing cartel leaders rarely stops trafficking, and explain that cartels have fragmented into roughly 400 groups, with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel comprising about 90 organizations[1].

Jan 12 2026 – President Claudia Sheinbaum tells Trump in a 15‑minute phone call that U.S. military intervention is unnecessary, emphasizing Mexican sovereignty, while Trump reiterates his hard‑line stance, claiming 97 % of water‑borne drugs have been interdicted and that the plan will shift to land targets[8].

Jan 16 2026 – Sheinbaum cites a steep drop in homicide rates, lower fentanyl seizures, and reduced migration as evidence of a successful joint crackdown, even as Trump again threatens land strikes; Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mexican Foreign Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente issue a joint statement urging deeper cooperation[7].

Jan 20 2026 – Security Minister Omar García Harfuch announces the third transfer of 37 “high‑impact” cartel members—including figures from the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel—to the United States, bringing the year‑to‑date total to 92; video shows prisoners loaded onto a military jet near Mexico City[6].

Jan 21 2026 – Sheinbaum defends the transfers as a sovereign decision made by the National Security Council after a U.S. request, stating “Mexico is put first above all else,” while U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi calls the move a landmark achievement in the Trump administration’s anti‑cartel effort[5].

Jan 26‑27 2026 – A coalition of lawyers and families files lawsuits alleging Mexico illegally sent nearly 100 cartel affiliates to the U.S. without extradition orders; attorney Yarey Sánchez Lagunas says due‑process was denied, and Zetas partner Vanesa Guzmán files a treason complaint against Security Minister García Harfuch[4].

Jan 27 2026 – Former DEA international‑operations chief Mike Vigil defends the rapid transfers, arguing Mexico’s constitution permits presidential action for national security and that removing inmates curtails cartel communications from prison[4].

2026 (ongoing) – Analysts expect Trump’s rhetoric to persist as a negotiation tool during upcoming revisions of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada trade agreement, using the threat of intervention to extract security concessions from Mexico[9].