Nov 2024 – María Corina Machado’s opposition coalition loses the presidential election, cementing Nicolás Maduro’s grip on power and leaving the military’s loyalty as the decisive factor in the regime’s survival[11].

Sep 2025 – U.S. forces destroy more than 80 drug‑smuggling boats in the Caribbean, killing over 80 people; the strikes intensify Washington’s “war on drugs” and fuel Maduro’s claim that the U.S. seeks to destabilise Chavismo[11].

Mar 2025 – The United States deports over 200 Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador’s Terrorism Confinement Center (Cecot), prompting Caracas to denounce the action as “kidnapping” and sparking protests in Venezuela[2].

Jul 2025 – Negotiations between Washington and Caracas lead to the return of the deported migrants and the release of ten Americans held in Venezuela, while Maduro presses for the repatriation of the remaining detainees[2].

Aug 2025 – The U.S. raises the bounty for information on Nicolás Maduro to $50 million, signalling an escalation of pressure on the president for alleged narcotics violations[2].

Nov 29 2025 – President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that Venezuelan airspace is “closed in its entirety,” urging airlines and pilots to treat it as off‑limits and hinting at imminent land strikes[3].

Nov 30 2025 – U.S. officials consider direct strikes against Venezuela while Maduro’s “loyalty‑punishment” system rewards loyal officials and punishes dissent, keeping the military firmly aligned with the regime despite U.S. incentives[11].

Dec 1 2025 – Trump announces the airspace closure and deploys more than a dozen warships and 15,000 troops under Operation Southern Spear, noting that “land strikes could happen very soon”[8].

Dec 1 2025 – Trump confirms he spoke with Maduro by phone, but offers no details, while reiterating the airspace closure and the ongoing campaign of boat strikes that have killed at least 83 people[9].

Dec 10 2025 – Two U.S. Navy F/A‑18 jets fly over the Gulf of Venezuela from the carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, a visible pressure move that follows a series of boat‑strike operations and a recent phone call between the leaders[7].

Dec 12 2025 – The United States seizes a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast and announces plans for additional interceptions, while Maduro denounces the seizure as “act of international piracy”[6].

Dec 17 2025 – Trump designates the Maduro government as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and orders a total blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers, claiming the regime uses “stolen oil” to fund drug terrorism and human‑trafficking[12].

Dec 22 2025 – Maduro posts a defiant Christmas message on Telegram, declaring “No War!” and urging national unity as U.S. forces build up in the Caribbean and begin seizing Venezuelan oil vessels[5].

Dec 30 2025 – In a Telegram post, Maduro praises the Venezuelan military for downing 39 drug‑trafficking planes in 2025 and 430 since the anti‑drug law’s inception, framing the forces as “24‑hour vigilance” against narcotics[4].

Dec 31 2025 – A pre‑taped New Year’s Eve interview airs on state TV; Maduro says Venezuela is “ready for dialogue ‘wherever they want and whenever they want’” on drug‑trafficking cooperation, while the U.S. launches strikes on five alleged drug‑smuggling boats, bringing the total known boat strikes to 35 and deaths to at least 115[10].

Jan 2 2026 – Maduro signals openness to U.S. talks on drug trafficking and oil, stating “we are ready for dialogue wherever they want and whenever they want” and urging any negotiations to be “data‑driven” and based on credible evidence, while avoiding comment on the recent CIA drone strike on a Venezuelan docking area[1][4].