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Cuba Rejects U.S. Talks as Trump Threatens Oil Cutoff After Maduro Capture

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Cuba’s President Declares No Formal Dialogue With Washington Miguel Díaz‑Canel posted on X that there are currently no talks with the U.S. government beyond technical migration contacts and any future dialogue must respect sovereign equality, mutual respect, and international law [1][2]. He framed the stance as a response to U.S. hostility and reiterated that Cuba will not be dictated by external pressure [3][4]. The statement aligns with earlier remarks that Cuba remains open only to “serious” dialogue under lawful conditions [2].

Trump Issues Ultimatum Linking Oil and Money to a Cuban Deal Former President Donald Trump warned on Truth Social that “there will be no more oil or money going to Cuba” unless Havana makes a deal “before it is too late,” tying the threat to the recent U.S. operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro [4][5][6]. He portrayed the move as a shift in U.S. policy, claiming the United States will now protect Venezuela and cut off the subsidized oil flow that Cuba has long relied on [4][5]. The ultimatum emphasizes energy and financial leverage as coercive tools.

U.S. Raid on Caracas Results in 32 Cuban Casualties The U.S. operation that seized Maduro and his wife led to the death of 32 Cuban security personnel, according to Cuban officials [3][4]. Cuba’s foreign minister rejected U.S. claims that Havana traded security services for Venezuelan oil, insisting the island has an absolute right to import fuel without interference [3][5]. The casualty figure underscores Cuba’s direct involvement in Venezuela’s security arrangements and raises the stakes of the diplomatic row.

Energy Shortages Persist Despite Limited Oil Imports Before the U.S. attack, Cuba received roughly 35,000 bpd of Venezuelan oil, 5,500 bpd from Mexico, and 7,500 bpd from Russia, yet widespread blackouts continue across the island [1]. Experts warn that any further disruption of Venezuelan shipments could deepen the electricity crisis and exacerbate shortages [1][5]. The fragile energy mix highlights Cuba’s dependence on external supplies amid a deepening economic crisis.

U.S. Sanctions Have Cost Cuba Over $7.5 Billion Cuban officials estimate that U.S. sanctions have drained more than $7.5 billion from the economy between March 2024 and February 2025, intensifying shortages, inflation, and social unrest [1][4]. The sanctions are cited as a major factor behind the island’s “worst economic crisis in decades,” reinforcing Havana’s resistance to U.S. pressure [4]. International observers note the embargo’s role in limiting Cuba’s ability to mitigate the energy shortfall.

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Timeline

Jan 5, 2026 – U.S. Special Forces launch a surprise raid on a Caracas military base, capture President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, and kill 32 Cuban security personnel who were assisting Venezuela; the operation proceeds with no U.S. casualties, marking a dramatic escalation of U.S. involvement in Latin America. [3][6]

Jan 5, 2026 – President Miguel Díaz‑Canel rallies supporters in front of the U.S. Embassy, declaring “We will not let the alliance fall” and pledging that Cuba will defend its decades‑long partnership with Venezuela despite the raid. [3]

Jan 5, 2026 – Senator Lindsey Graham, aboard Air Force One, warns “You just wait for Cuba,” labeling the island a “communist dictatorship” whose “days are numbered,” signaling a hardening U.S. stance toward Havana. [6]

Jan 5, 2026 – Analysts note that the raid is framed by Washington as an extension of the Monroe Doctrine, illustrating a renewed U.S. doctrine of hemispheric dominance. [3]

Jan 11, 2026 – Former President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social, “There will be no more oil or money going to Cuba,” urging Havana to “strike a deal before it is too late” and tying the threat to the recent capture of Maduro. [1][5][8]

Jan 11, 2026 – Trump adds that the United States will now protect Venezuela, stating “the world’s most powerful military will protect Venezuela,” thereby shifting U.S. policy from opposition to guardianship. [8]

Jan 11, 2026 – Trump cites a planned transfer of “30 million to 50 million barrels” of Venezuelan oil to the United States, using the figure to pressure Cuba’s oil‑dependent economy. [1][2]

Jan 11, 2026 – Trump endorses Senator Marco Rubio’s potential presidency and amplifies calls for regime change in Havana, marking a departure from the previous administration’s more cautious engagement. [5]

Jan 11, 2026 – Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla asserts Havana’s “absolute right to import fuel from any willing exporter without interference,” rejecting U.S. claims that Cuba traded security for oil. [1][2]

Jan 11, 2026 – President Díaz‑Canel replies on X, “No one dictates what we do,” rejecting Trump’s ultimatum and framing the United States as a longtime aggressor. [2]

Jan 11, 2026 – Cuban residents express mixed reactions: some fear severe shortages if Venezuelan oil stops, while others claim resilience and preparedness for potential blackouts. [2]

Jan 12, 2026 – President Díaz‑Canel signals openness to dialogue, stating Cuba will engage in “serious dialogue on sovereign equality, mutual respect, and international law,” but notes that current contacts are limited to migration issues. [4][7]

Jan 12, 2026 – Cuba publicly rejects Trump’s demand, reiterating “No one dictates what we do,” and declares that any future talks must respect Cuba’s sovereignty and be free of economic coercion. [2][7]

Jan 12, 2026 – China’s foreign ministry calls on the United States to lift the blockade and sanctions against Cuba, urging “actions conducive to regional peace and stability.” [4]

Jan 12, 2026 – The United States seizes a fifth tanker carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil, intensifying pressure on Cuba’s fuel supply and deepening the island’s electricity crisis. [1]

Jan 12, 2026 – Energy observers note that, before the U.S. attack, Cuba imports roughly 35,000 bpd of Venezuelan oil, 5,500 bpd from Mexico, and 7,500 bpd from Russia, highlighting the fragility of its energy mix. [7]

Jan 12, 2026 – Analysts estimate that U.S. sanctions have cost Cuba more than $7.5 billion between March 2024 and February 2025, underscoring the economic toll of the embargo amid the current crisis. [7][8]

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