Outbreak Confirmed Across Eight Alappuzha Panchayats and Four Kottayam Villages The NIHSAD laboratory in Bhopal verified a highly pathogenic H5N1 strain in one ward of each of eight Alappuzha panchayats and four villages of Kottayam, announced on Dec 23 2025 [2]. The virus was detected in ducks throughout Alappuzha and in chickens and quails in Kottayam’s Kuruppanthara, Manjoor, Kallupurakkal and Velur [2]. Confirmation arrived just before the Christmas‑New Year period, when poultry demand traditionally spikes [2].

Mass Bird Mortality Triggers Large‑Scale Culling Operations Roughly 55,000 birds—including ducks, chickens and quails—have already died in the two districts [1]. State authorities plan to cull an additional 25,000 domestic birds within the coming week to halt spread [1]. An emergency meeting will order culling within a 1‑km radius of each infected site and impose a 10‑km movement ban, following the revised 2021 central guidelines [2].

Duck Farming Sector Faces Historic Production Collapse Kuttanad’s duck output has plunged from 10‑15 lakh annually to about three lakh, reflecting a severe contraction [1]. The count of large‑scale duck operations (2,000 + birds) fell from roughly 1,500 to fewer than 250 over recent years [1]. Trade bans on duck meat, eggs, chicken and quail products have deepened financial strain, and veteran farmer Ramachandran G. reports losing 12,000 ducks and ₹20 lakh in losses [1].

Open‑Air Rearing and Migratory Birds Heighten Containment Challenges Traditional Kuttanad duck farms rear birds outdoors on waterlogged fields, exposing flocks to migratory wild birds identified as the primary virus source [1][2]. Officials note India lacks a nationwide migratory‑bird monitoring system, complicating early detection [1]. Experts stress that indoor, biosecure farming could mitigate risk, while the government emphasizes rapid containment to prevent viral mutation [1].

Modeling Study Highlights Narrow Window for Human Spillover Prevention Researchers used the BharatSim platform to simulate H5N1 spread in a synthetic Namakkal village, a dense poultry hub with 1,600 farms and 70 million chickens [3]. The model shows quarantining households after two human cases can almost certainly contain the outbreak, whereas ten cases likely exceed quick‑containment capacity [3]. Early culling and targeted vaccination are effective only before spillover; once tertiary infections appear, stricter measures become necessary [3]. The study omits migratory‑bird dynamics, limiting direct relevance to Kerala’s open‑air duck farms [3].