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EU Poised to Deploy Anti‑Coercion Tool as Trump Escalates Greenland Tariffs

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Trump Announces 10% Tariffs on Eight European Allies President Trump declared a 10 % duty on imports from Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom effective February 1, with a clause to raise the rate to 25 % on June 1 if no Greenland purchase deal is reached [1][2]. The tariffs target goods from the eight nations as leverage in the U.S. demand to acquire Greenland, a move that could increase consumer prices and strain transatlantic trade [1][2]. Trump warned the higher duty would remain until a “complete purchase” of Greenland is secured [1].

EU Considers Activating Anti‑Coercion Instrument European leaders, including French officials and French President Macron, have urged the European Union to ready its Anti‑Coercion Instrument, a mechanism created in late 2023 to counter economic pressure [1][2]. The Commission confirmed the tool remains on the table and could block U.S. market access or impose export controls, though analysts note deployment could take months [2]. Although originally designed to address China, the EU is debating its use against a close ally amid the tariff dispute [2].

Potential Retaliatory Tariffs Could Reach €93 Billion EU officials discussed reinstating €93 billion ($108 billion) of previously announced retaliatory tariffs against the United States, which were paused during a tentative trade truce [2]. If activated, these measures would target a broad range of U.S. exports, heightening uncertainty for American businesses and investors [2]. The scale of the possible retaliation underscores the seriousness of the diplomatic standoff over Greenland [2].

Allied Nations Warn of Economic Spiral and Maintain Dialogue The eight affected European countries issued a joint statement cautioning that the U.S. tariffs risk a dangerous downward spiral for global trade [1]. The United Kingdom, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, pledged not to retaliate and emphasized daily communication with Washington to preserve constructive relations [1]. Greenland’s prime minister, Jens‑Frederik Nielsen, rejected external pressure, reaffirming the territory’s stance on the sovereignty issue [1].

Market Uncertainty Rises as Trade Tensions Escalate Economists warn that the 10 % tariffs could raise import prices in both the United States and Europe, potentially dampening economic growth [2]. The prospect of the EU’s anti‑coercion response adds further volatility, as businesses await clarification on the timeline and scope of any countermeasures [2]. Investors monitor the situation closely, noting that prolonged uncertainty may affect $108 billion worth of pending U.S.–EU trade and tax negotiations [1].

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Timeline

Late 2023 – The European Union finalizes its Anti‑Coercion Instrument, a trade‑defence tool intended to deter economic pressure from major powers such as China. The mechanism, which can restrict market access or intellectual‑property rights, remains unused as of early 2026, setting the legal groundwork for a possible response to U.S. actions. [2]

Jan 19, 2026 – President Donald Trump announces a 10 % tariff on imports from eight European allies—Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom—effective Feb 1, linking the measure to his demand for a full U.S. purchase of Greenland. [1][2]

Jan 19, 2026 – Trump warns that the tariff could rise to 25 % on June 1 if no agreement on Greenland is reached, signaling an escalation that could pressure Europe’s economies and the pending U.S.–EU trade‑tax pact. [2]

Jan 19, 2026 – Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens‑Frederik Nielsen declares, “We will not buckle under pressure,” rejecting U.S. demands and underscoring Greenland’s resolve to remain autonomous in the dispute. [2]

Jan 19, 2026 – United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledges to keep bilateral ties steady, stating London is “unlikely to retaliate with tariffs” and will maintain daily communication with Washington to preserve a constructive relationship. [2]

Jan 19, 2026 – The eight targeted countries issue a joint statement warning that the tariffs “risk a dangerous downward spiral” and could derail a pending U.S.–EU trade and tax agreement valued at roughly $108 billion in U.S. goods. [2]

Jan 19, 2026 – French officials and EU lawmakers publicly urge the European Commission to consider deploying the Anti‑Coercion Instrument as leverage in the Greenland row, marking the first high‑level push to activate the 2023‑created bazooka. [2]

Jan 19, 2026 – A European Commission spokesperson confirms the anti‑coercion tool “has not been off the table” and that the EU possesses the capacity to respond to the U.S. tariffs, though analysts note implementation could take several months. [1]

Jan 19, 2026 – EU leaders revisit €93 billion ($108 billion) of retaliatory tariffs previously announced but postponed during a tentative trade truce, indicating the bloc may revive the measures to counteract the American tariffs. [1]

Jan 19, 2026 – Trade analysts highlight that the anti‑coercion instrument was originally designed to counter China, not close allies, raising questions about how the EU would wield a “trade bazooka” against the United States in this unprecedented dispute. [1]

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