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Russia Insists War Persists Until Donbas Demands Met as U.S. Envoys Push for One‑Issue Deal

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Intensive diplomatic sprint links Moscow, Washington, and Davos U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and former adviser Jared Kushner spent four hours in Moscow with Kremlin officials, then flew to Abu Dhabi for a trilateral working group with Russia and Ukraine [1]. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met former President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where both leaders said a compromise was possible [1][3]. Witkoff later told reporters the negotiations hinged on a single, solvable issue, though he did not name it [2]. The flurry of meetings underscores a coordinated push to translate diplomatic momentum into a concrete peace framework [1][2][3].

Territorial deadlock centers on Russia’s Donbas demand Moscow insists Ukraine must cede the entire Donbas region, a demand that remains the principal obstacle to any settlement [1][2][3]. Ukraine retains control of two “fortress” cities—Kramatorsk and Sloviansk—and roughly 20 percent of Donetsk oblast, keeping the industrial heartland out of Russian hands [1][2]. Analysts note that reconquering the remaining Donbas could take years, reinforcing the strategic weight of the territorial issue [1]. Both sides acknowledge that without a mutually acceptable arrangement on Donbas, a durable peace cannot be achieved [1][2][3].

Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power grid heighten diplomatic urgency On 17 January, coordinated attacks crippled energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv, leaving more than 20 settlements without electricity and threatening heating supplies in the country’s second‑largest city [4]. President Zelensky warned that these assaults erode any diplomatic openings and jeopardize civilian resilience [4]. Ukraine is scrambling to import additional electricity and secure replacement equipment to keep hospitals and schools operational [4]. The continued targeting of civilian infrastructure adds pressure on negotiators to accelerate a cease‑fire arrangement [4].

Contrasting optimism and skepticism shape U.S. commentary Trump declared at Davos that Russia and Ukraine are “near the end of the war,” urging both leaders to act quickly to avoid further bloodshed [3]. Witkoff echoed a more measured optimism, stating that progress had been made and that the parties were moving closer to a possible announcement [3]. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, cautioned against public speculation and declined to comment on the current negotiation stage [2]. Trump also expressed doubt that Zelensky would accept any deal, highlighting internal disagreement within the U.S. camp about Ukraine’s willingness to compromise [2][3].

Ukraine’s constitutional limits stall territorial referendum Kyiv maintains that a constitutional referendum on ceding territory cannot be held while martial law remains in effect, limiting any formal decision on border changes until the conflict subsides [1]. This legal constraint complicates Moscow’s demand for a post‑war territorial settlement and adds another layer of complexity to the peace process [1].

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Timeline

Jul 2025 – The most recent direct Kyiv‑Moscow talks occur in Istanbul, producing prisoner swaps but yielding little progress toward ending the war. “the most recent official direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow were held in Istanbul… led to prisoner swaps but little real progress toward ending the war.” [20]

Nov 30, 2025 – President Donald Trump tells reporters aboard Air Force One that the high‑level Miami meeting “is going along well” and that there is a “good chance” a deal can end Russia’s war in Ukraine. “good chance” a deal could end Russia’s war in Ukraine. [13]

Dec 1, 2025 – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stresses that the territorial question is the toughest part of the peace talks, insisting Ukraine will not cede any Donbas territory. “the territorial question is the most difficult in peace talks.” [4]

Dec 1, 2025 – Zelenskyy says the revised Trump‑era peace framework “looks better” after amendments, while the Kremlin simultaneously claims to have captured Pokrovsk. “the Trump‑era peace framework ‘looks better’ after revisions.” [19]

Dec 2, 2025 – Russian President Vladimir Putin meets U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff (and Jared Kushner) in Moscow; the White House expresses “very optimistic” hopes for a deal. “very optimistic about reaching a deal to end the Ukraine war.” [3]

Dec 2, 2025 – A five‑hour U.S.–Russia session between Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov and envoy Witkoff is described as “useful and constructive,” yet no substantive agreement on territory emerges. “useful and constructive, yet no substantive agreement was reached on key issues such as territorial control.” [16]

Dec 2, 2025 – Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announces Russia’s seizure of the strategic Donetsk town of Pokrovsk, a claim Kyiv disputes. “Russia has seized Pokrovsk.” [10]

Dec 2, 2025 – Former President Trump dispatches Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow to push for a Ukraine peace deal, citing their role in the 2025 Gaza‑Hamas ceasefire. “Witkoff and Kushner will meet Putin to push for a Ukraine peace deal.” [11]

Dec 3, 2025 – The White House announces that Witkoff will hold talks with Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov in Miami, following a five‑hour Moscow session that yields no compromise on troop withdrawals or borders. “Witkoff will hold talks with Umerov in Miami.” [2]

Dec 6‑7, 2025 – After three days of negotiations in Miami, U.S. and Ukrainian teams leave with “difficult issues” on territory and security guarantees still unresolved. “difficult issues on territory and security guarantees remain.” [5]

Dec 8‑15, 2025 – The U.S. diplomatic push stalls as Russia and Ukraine maintain sharply opposing border demands; Putin insists on recognition of annexed regions while Kyiv refuses any territorial concession. “U.S. diplomatic effort stalls because Russia and Ukraine hold sharply opposing demands on borders.” [9]

Dec 18, 2025 – Kremlin sovereign‑wealth chief Kirill Dmitriev schedules a Miami meeting with Witkoff and Kushner for Dec 20, after Berlin talks on security guarantees and territorial concessions. “Dmitriev will meet Witkoff and Kushner on Dec 20.” [6]

Dec 21, 2025 – Former adviser Jared Kushner re‑enters diplomacy, taking a larger role alongside Witkoff in Miami talks that also address a fragile Gaza truce. “Kushner takes a greater role in delicate peace negotiations alongside Witkoff.” [12]

Dec 21, 2025 – Steve Witkoff reports that the Florida talks are “productive and constructive,” while EU leaders pledge €90 billion for Ukraine but fail to agree on using frozen Russian assets for a loan. “Witkoff says Florida talks are productive and constructive.” [14]

Dec 21, 2025 – The Kremlin denies any three‑way Ukraine‑Russia‑U.S. talks in Miami, stating such a format “is not in preparation.” “talks among Ukraine, Russia and the United States are not in preparation.” [20]

Dec 22, 2025 – The Miami summit is described as “productive and constructive,” yet no breakthrough emerges; parallel U.S.–Russia talks with Kirill Dmitriev continue in the background. “talks are productive and constructive, but no major breakthrough emerges.” [1]

Jan 17, 2026 – A Ukrainian delegation led by Budanov, Umerov and Arakhamia lands in the United States to discuss peace details as Russian strikes on the Kyiv and Odesa power grids intensify. “Zelenskyy says strikes undermine diplomacy.” [15]

Jan 21, 2026 – At Davos, former President Trump declares that Moscow and Kyiv are “close to a peace deal,” warning that delays will cause more deaths and urging both sides to act. “Moscow and Kyiv are close to a peace deal.” [7]

Jan 22, 2026 – Speaking at Davos, Steve Witkoff says the war’s end hinges on “one issue” that is solvable, praising Ukraine’s negotiating team and noting President Zelenskyy’s constant availability. “there is one issue and it is solvable.” [8]

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