Jan 7, 2026 – ICE agent Jonathan Ross fatally shoots Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis; DHS later describes Ross as a “domestic terrorist” who acted in self‑defense, and the incident becomes a rallying point for calls to pull ICE out of the city. [4]

Jan 15, 2026 – The Senate passes a bipartisan three‑bill funding package (82‑15) to keep the government operating, but the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) component remains a sticking point after the Minnesota shooting, and lawmakers stress the need to finish all 12 appropriations before the Jan 30 deadline. [10]

Jan 22, 2026 – The House approves the final four spending bills, totaling about $1.2 trillion, and sends them to the Senate; the Homeland Security bill clears 220‑207, funding ICE at roughly $10 billion and allocating $20 million for body cameras despite Democratic objections that cite the Good shooting. [9]

Jan 23, 2026 – In a markup, the House advances the $64.4 billion DHS appropriations bill with a 220‑207 vote; seven Democrats (Suozzi, Cuellar, Davis, Gillen, Golden, González, Pérez) join most Republicans, while Rep. Thomas Massie is the lone Republican to oppose it, securing ICE and FEMA funding through Sept. 30. [6][7]

Jan 24, 2026 – After the fatal shooting of ICU nurse Alex Pretti, Democratic senators publicly urge the Senate to withhold DHS funding, demanding that ICE leave Minneapolis; Senate leader Chuck Schumer posts, “Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed … if the DHS funding bill is included.” [4][5]

Jan 24, 2026 – Prediction markets react dramatically: Polymarket’s shutdown probability jumps from ~8 % to 75 % by evening with $3.8 million wagered, and Kalshi’s odds rise to 76 % with $6.1 million at stake, signaling a high likelihood of a shutdown. [5]

Jan 25, 2026 – Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer declares on X that the DHS bill is “woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE” and that Democrats will block any spending package containing it, raising the chance of a partial shutdown when funding expires on Jan 30. [2][3][11][12]

Jan 25, 2026 – Senators Catherine Cortez Masto, Jacky Rosen, Tim Kaine, Brian Schatz and Mark Warner announce they will vote no on the DHS allocation, demanding guardrails, accountability and transparency before any vote. [2]

Jan 25, 2026 – The House approves a $20 million allocation for federal body‑cameras for immigration agents, but Rep. Rosa DeLauro’s push for a mandatory camera requirement is rejected; DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin says providing body cameras remains a priority. [2]

Jan 25, 2026 – DHS’s FY 2025 budget request proposes cutting ICE’s body‑camera program by about $15 million—nearly 75 % of the $20.6 million program—and slashing full‑time staff from 22 to three, a reduction first reported by The Washington Post. [2]

Jan 25, 2026 – Senate Appropriations Committee top Democrat Patty Murray announces she will not support the DHS bill in its current form, calling for warrant requirements and stricter ICE training; a snowstorm delays the Senate’s return until Tuesday, pushing the first procedural vote back. [8]

Jan 26, 2026 – Lawmakers weigh DHS funding options as the Jan 30 deadline looms; the House may reconvene at week’s end to vote on a revised appropriations set, while the Senate would need unanimous consent to strip DHS from the package—a move the White House opposes. [1]

Jan 26, 2026 – Senate Appropriations Committee’s top Republican, Susan Collins, warns that removing the DHS bill “certainly would not be my first choice,” suggesting possible procedural protections in talks with Majority Leader John Thune. [1]

Jan 26, 2026 – Senior White House aides and GOP senators begin outreach to Democrats seeking a way to keep agencies open, but “no realistic proposals have emerged,” leaving a shutdown increasingly likely if no agreement is reached by Jan 30. [1]

Jan 30, 2026 (projected) – Current DHS appropriations expire; if the Senate does not approve a new DHS funding measure by midnight, a partial government shutdown could begin on Jan 31, affecting disaster‑relief, TSA and other critical services. [3][4][11]