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Abu Dhabi Trilateral Talks Resume Amid Donbas Stalemate and Ready U.S. Guarantees

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Constructive Yet Inconclusive Abu Dhabi Sessions Ukraine, Russia and the United States met in Abu Dhabi on Jan 26‑27, describing the talks as “constructive” but producing no breakthrough on core issues; both Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized the need for further rounds, with the next session slated for Feb 1 [2][3][4][5][6][10][11].

Donbas Territory Remains Core Dealbreaker Russia insists Ukraine withdraw from the industrial Donbas region, while Kyiv retains roughly 20 % of Donetsk oblast, including the fortified cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and refuses any concession citing constitutional and moral constraints [1][2][3][9][12][16].

U.S. Security Guarantees Document Completed Zelensky announced that a bilateral security‑guarantees paper with the United States is “100 % ready,” awaiting a formal signing date and subsequent ratification by both the U.S. Congress and Ukraine’s parliament [1][4][14][15].

Kremlin Links Peace Path to Donbas Withdrawal Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev posted that Ukraine’s pull‑out from Donbas is the “path to peace,” echoing a Financial Times report that U.S. security guarantees are contingent on a Donbas concession, making the territorial issue the main obstacle to any settlement [1][12].

Intense Fighting Continues During Diplomacy Russia reported downing 40 Ukrainian drones and Ukraine shot down 110 of 138 launched, while a massive Russian airstrike killed civilians in Kyiv and sparked retaliatory hits on Russian targets, underscoring that hostilities persist alongside diplomatic efforts [2][3][5][12].

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Timeline

Dec 1, 2025 – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner hold a four‑hour meeting with Ukrainian officials in Florida, calling it productive but noting more work is needed; Ukrainian chief of staff Andrii Yermak resigns and Rustem Umerov assumes a leading role in the talks. [25]

Dec 2, 2025 – Russian President Vladimir Putin meets U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow, with Jared Kushner expected to attend; the White House says it is “very optimistic” about a deal, while Zelensky describes the talks as constructive but stresses that Kyiv will not cede eastern territory. [24]

Dec 10, 2025 – President Donald Trump tells reporters that Zelensky must be realistic about the war’s duration, noting that 82 % of Ukrainians want a settlement; the U.S. House passes a $400 million aid package for Ukraine, and Zelensky says he would hold elections within 60‑90 days if solid security guarantees are secured. [23]

Dec 14, 2025 – Zelensky offers to drop Ukraine’s NATO‑membership bid in exchange for legally binding security guarantees comparable to NATO, but rejects a U.S. proposal to withdraw forces from Donetsk and create a demilitarised zone; Russian adviser Yuri Ushakov warns Russian forces would remain in Donetsk regardless. [22]

Dec 16, 2025 – After Berlin talks, Zelensky says draft peace proposals could be finalized “within days,” describing the plan as “very workable” but incomplete; NATO officials outline a multinational force and U.S.‑led cease‑fire monitoring, while the Kremlin reiterates it seeks a full peace settlement, not a temporary truce. [21]

Dec 18, 2025 – Kremlin sovereign‑wealth‑fund head Kirill Dmitriev is scheduled to meet U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Miami on Dec 20; earlier Berlin meetings discuss U.S. security‑guarantee details, and Putin reiterates demands for Crimea, four occupied regions and the abandonment of Ukraine’s NATO bid, which Zelensky refuses to amend. [20]

Dec 20, 2025 – Dmitriev meets Witkoff and Kushner in Miami, continuing the diplomatic track set in Berlin (meeting confirmed by the Kremlin). [20]

Dec 26, 2025 – Zelensky confirms he will travel to Florida on Sunday (Dec 27) to meet Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago, saying “every meeting and every conversation brings us closer to the desired result.” [19]

Dec 27, 2025 – Russia launches a missile and drone barrage on Kyiv that kills one civilian and wounds 27; Zelensky prepares for the upcoming Trump talks while Poland temporarily closes border airports amid the strikes. [30]

Dec 28, 2025 – Trump hosts Zelensky at Mar‑a‑Lago, describing their discussion on security, the economy and Donbas as “really positive”; a draft peace plan is said to be 90 % complete, and Zelensky indicates he could abandon Ukraine’s NATO bid if the U.S. provides NATO‑like guarantees. [18]

Dec 29, 2025 – Zelensky seeks Trump’s endorsement of a revised 20‑point peace plan; the meeting yields no breakthrough, and both sides say the negotiations remain “complex and will take weeks” to clarify a possible deal. [17]

Dec 30, 2025 – Zelensky pushes back after Trump claims Putin wants Ukraine to “succeed,” emphasizing that Kyiv defends its sovereignty rather than shaping Russia’s future. [16]

Dec 30, 2025 – European and Canadian leaders hold a virtual summit on U.S.–led peace efforts; Polish PM Donald Tusk says peace is “on the horizon but not 100 % certain,” while Trump’s recent hosting of Zelensky is noted and a “Coalition of the Willing” meeting is slated for Jan 3‑6, 2026. [15]

Jan 3, 2026 – About 18 European security advisers gather in Kyiv to review security guarantees and an $800 billion economic package; Zelensky announces a cabinet reshuffle (Shmyhal to energy minister, Fedorov to defence, Budanov as chief of staff) and says the next phase will move to European, Canadian, Japanese and other capitals. [28]

Jan 6, 2026 – The UK and France sign a declaration to deploy troops in Ukraine if a peace deal is reached; Zelensky says the United States and Ukraine have discussed “territorial ideas” but allies have yet to provide a clear, legally binding security pledge. [5][14]

Jan 7, 2026 – Zelensky warns that allied partners have not offered an unambiguous, parliament‑backed security guarantee after Paris talks, even as the UK and France pledge to send troops under a “declaration of intent.” [4]

Jan 8, 2026 – Russia’s foreign ministry warns that any Western troops deployed in Ukraine would be “legitimate targets,” reacting to the UK‑France declaration; Zelensky says a U.S. security‑guarantee document is “essentially ready for finalisation” with the American president. [13]

Jan 15, 2026 – Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov backs Trump’s claim that Kyiv is delaying a peace deal, while European officials argue Russia is the real stall‑point; no date is set for Witkoff’s next visit to Moscow. [12]

Jan 22, 2026 – Zelensky announces that trilateral talks will be held in the UAE following his Davos meeting with Trump; U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner express optimism, and the U.S. plan ties a Donbas free‑economic zone to security guarantees; Zelensky says he has secured U.S. security guarantees, pending congressional and parliamentary approval. [3]

Jan 23, 2026 –

Russia, Ukraine and the United States convene their first trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, with delegations led by Admiral Igor Kostyukov (Russia) and Rustem Umerov (Ukraine); the agenda centers on the Donbas territorial question, which Moscow says must be resolved before any durable peace. [2]

The inaugural security‑focused trilateral session launches a working group on security issues, with the Kremlin warning that lasting progress hinges on the territorial issue. [10]

All parties agree that Donbas is the sole remaining sticking point; Zelensky declares the region “non‑negotiable” for Ukraine. [9]

Zelensky says the future of Donbas will dominate the Abu Dhabi talks, noting a free‑trade‑zone idea discussed in Davos, while Putin meets Witkoff and Kushner overnight and stresses Kyiv must withdraw from Russian‑annexed eastern areas. [8]

The talks make limited progress; Trump publicly urges both sides to reach a deal, calling it “stupid” not to, and Ukraine presses the United States for explicit security guarantees, while Kyiv’s mayor warns of continued Russian strikes on critical infrastructure. [1]

Jan 25, 2026 – Zelensky describes the two‑day Abu Dhabi negotiations as “constructive” and announces that a follow‑up round will take place on Feb 1, 2026; all parties agree to coordinate reporting to their capitals, but a framework for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remains unresolved. [7]

Jan 26, 2026 – Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says the Abu Dhabi meetings are constructive yet yield no breakthrough; Zelensky states the U.S. security‑guarantees document is “100 % ready” pending formal signing, while President Trump sets deadlines and threatens additional sanctions; German foreign minister Johann Wadephul warns that Russia’s “stubborn insistence on the decisive territorial issue” could derail negotiations. [6]

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